Long-term owners lost interest in the sale due to a lack of speculators.
Studies do not predict BTC falling $25,000 or more thanks to Hodlers hitting all-time highs.
Analyst ROOT said that there is no reason for a dramatic BTC sale
No major selling from “maturing” hodlers
Bitcoin has not yet hit the highest level in this halving cycle, which has lowered the confidence of investors
On-chain indicators continue to rise much more than the spot price. Investors expect BTC/USD to go even higher in the future.
ROOT stated that this is due to the lack of short-term owners. Even less speculative bets came from the high of $69000, which is an inverse situation compared to the December 2017 cycle.
Moreover, long-term holders (LTHs) hoping for a new price are no longer the ones who support the market, not new STHs who want to “buy on the low”.
“With the HODL Army growing it’s allowing us to make new ATH’s (69k top) without barely any STH’s in the market,” Root explained.
“Since we didn’t reach prices above 100K, which so many expected, many still believe this will eventually happen and might therefore hold on to their coins.”
Therefore, the average price of Bitcoin of $25,000 does not seem like a very likely target due to the reluctance of the Short-term holders (LTH).
While some have chosen to do so lately, it was because they were buying at higher prices in early 2021 and wanted to cut their losses. Those who bought over $60K of Bitcoin preferred to wait.
“Older LTH’s mainly holding strong. No real reason to see a drop below realized price.” said ROOT.
Driven by macro factors, this could see a return of $30,000 or worse yet, the 200-week moving average could come in as support at $21,000.
It all depends on the US Federal Reserve and its response to inflation, which is far from clear due to the limited scope of containment measures.
However, if strict policy becomes law, stocks, commodities and risk assets will be hit hard – meaning heavy headwinds for crypto.